Saturday, October 25, 2014

NYT's Concern Trolling

Another faulty analysis.

This is a topic which needs to be dissected in greater detail at the appropriate time, but a few words now are necessary.

All mainstream analyses of this topic, all of them, by everyone, without fail, liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, all make the same error.  They assume that the White vote for the GOP is a "given," it is automatic, there is some obligation, some law of nature, that forces Whites to vote Republican regardless of who the GOP candidate is, what they stand for, and what Republicans say or do not say, what they do or do not do.  Therefore, White voters and their concerns can be safely ignored - after all, "they have nowhere else to go," and even if the GOP ran Al Sharpton as a candidate, Whites would still flock and vote for the guy with a "R" next to his name.

Of course, there is some historical precedent for this assumption; after all, for decades, stupid White voters have supported the GOP in sheep-like - better yet, lemming-like - fashion.  But things may be changing, subtle cracks may be forming in the GOP-White facade. After all, Romney in 2012 failed to a large extent due to a lack of appeal to working class Whites, decades of Republican betrayals have aggravated the base, and the Tea Party, as useless and compromised as it is, is a clear indication of frustration toward mainstream Republicanism.  Further, with the Internet, Whites have new sources of information about GOP perfidy, and about the issues, that previously didn't exist in the days when the controlled mass media were the only sources of political information and opinion.

Of course, Whites are still to a large extent enslaved by the GOP dogma; they need to force Republicans to earn their votes. However, the surprising current GOP resistance to amnesty is related to the growing unease among their base - the fear of losing White base support in the 2014 mid-term elections. Will the same hold in 2016, or will GOP fear-mongering about a "liberal Democrat" President stampede Whites into voting for a liberal Republican candidate?  Only time will tell, but, for now, any political analysis which assumes that the GOP can ignore its own base with impunity is flawed.