Number four looking good.
The reader may ask: "well, you've insulted Derbyshire as usual, but what probabilities do you assign to his five scenarios?"
1. Absorption. Here I agree with Derbyshire - zero percent. And that's not only for the reasons Derbyshire stated, but also for the simple fact that there is no reason for strong, confident, growing minorities to assimilate into weak, pathetic, cowardly, shrinking majorities. And an even more fundamental point, one which Derbyshire won't say for an obvious reason - if "successful," absorption and assimilation will ruin the West by destroying the biological foundations of our race-culture. So, regardless of the exact outcome, the probability that absorption will work out in the end is zero.
2. Restriction. What evidence is there that this has a high probability? None. Recent news underscores how weak, pitiful, cowardly, and useless is the objectively worthless and inferior entity known as "the White race." I'll be generous and put this as fifteen percent, since there are some very faint stirrings of dissent taking place. Another reason which gives some hope is that the newcomers are so obnoxious and unpleasant, so unwilling and unable to assimilate, that it is possible that even lowly and inferior Whites would be so agitated that they would be stirred to at least do a restriction-amnesty deal. If the newcomers were eager-to-please assimilators, that would make things worse, make the biological replacement of Whites so relatively painless that an immune reaction would be impossible. Thus, we should all hope the newcomers are as destructive as unpleasant as possible. But, even with that, 15% is probably much too high. We are talking about the White Dodo Bird, after all.
3. Rejection. If restriction is unlikely, rejection is laughably so. I won't say zero, since there is a theoretical chance that the newcomers will be so bad that an extremely strong immune reaction will kick in. So, I'll put it at one percent. That's probably too high by several-fold, but I don't want to use fractions here, so we'll round up to 1%.
4. Surrender. No doubt this is the most likely scenario - I'll put it at seventy four percent. That's right, a 74% chance that the leucosa less-than-omega most worthless race will just roll over and die. This Camp of the Saints ending likely should be even higher - more like 90% - but I'm in an optimistic mood today.
5. Fragmentation. I put this at only ten percent, even less than restriction. The amount of "resistance" in the areas Derb cites is over-rated. Chicken-wire Vik is a blustering opportunist, Trad Vlad is a multiracialist, and "conservative" areas of America will fold just like everyone else. Going back to Europe, while the Eastern European masses are a bit more healthy than their Western European counterparts, they still have time to be subjected to globalist and multiculturalist propaganda, and to be subjected to the economic pressure from the richer West. Don't discount the possibility of military threats as well. Further, my experience with Eastern Europeans is that they are suffering from an inferiority complex towards Western Europeans. All they have to be told is that they "are not acting European" and "are not displaying European values" and they'll give in real fast. Particularly the youth will be very susceptible to that.