Sunday, March 6, 2016

Trump's American Tribes

Supporting the Trumpery perception.

Let’s put aside the reality of Trump as a fraud, and concentrate for the time being on the current public perception of Trump as a pro-White right-wing bigot.  Where is this “fascist” Trump most popular?  Well, here.  And not in, say, Kansas, Maine, Oklahoma, or Alaska.  Not Minnesota, certainly.  If Trump fails to win the nomination, it’s clear what states and what populations are primarily responsible. Once again, we see the Lind “American Tribes” pattern, which is, not surprisingly, completely inconsistent with “movement” “ethnic gap” nonsense.

The appeal of a “racist fascist bigot” candidate is with the combination of White Southerners and Northeast White ethnics. The geographic and demographic basis of Trump's support, running up the eastern part of the US, from the deep South to the ethnic north, is considered a stronghold of "Democrats who tend to vote Republican"  (the so-called "Reagan Democrats") as well as those areas of the country that tend to rank high on alleged metrics of "racism."  That’s the real voting gap that exists when a racially charged candidate runs, as opposed to Neocon leftists like Bush Sr and Jr, Dole/Kemp, McCain, and Romney - anti-White weaklings who alienated the Reagan Democrats.  That’s the point (and prediction) I made nearly 15 years ago in TOQ: 
It would be interesting to know how much of the racial liberalism from the Bush-Dole-Kemp-Bush, Jr. crowd has destroyed the Reagan coalition, and eaten away at White ethnic Republican voters. There does not seem to be any clear data or opinion on this one way or another. But one thing that the Atlantic Monthly article does make clear: White ethnics, including and especially Italian-Americans, will support political programs and candidates that are pro-Euro-American, and that there is no intrinsic “ethnic gap” within the Euro-American community. Let the Republicans move to the right on race and any (as of yet unsubstantiated) leakage of White ethnic Republican support would be reversed.

To the extent Trump maintains the perception that he is a “racist bigot” this coalition will hold, to the extent he continues to flip-flop on issues and move to the center, the Southerner/Ethnic coalition will be weakened.  Support of White Southerners and White ethnics (*) is precisely correlated to the extent a (Republican) candidate is perceived as “racist and populist.”  The flip-flop fraud Trump is now doing all he can do ruin that, but it has been nice when it lasted.

*In the book, From Paesani to White Ethnics: The Italian Experience in Philadelphia, we learn that one of the cores of George Wallace's support in Philadelphia in 1968 came from that city's Italian-American voters, who supported Wallace ~70% more than the city as a whole. By 1984, with Reagan running for re-election, the once strongly-Democratic Italian-American voters supported the "fascist Raygun" by a 3/5 majority - and that despite an Italian-American being the VP candidate for the Democrats.