Monday, February 10, 2020

Coronavirus: Best and Worst Case Scenarios

EGI Notes leads the way…again.

As of today, the “movement” has not being paying much attention to the Chinese coronavirus crisis; there have been a few comments, tweets, brief news stories, etc. – with some Type I nitwits claiming that the whole thing is a “nothingburger” – and insofar as I know the only person on the Far Right who has been “beating the drum” about this issue from the very beginning has been yours truly, Ted Sallis.

And that’s an important point, and one I hope readers will remember. If (and when) this issue becomes a bigger problem in the coming weeks and months, the Quota Queens may jump on the bandwagon and start making a bigger deal about it, but only Ted Sallis on EGI Notes has been prioritizing the issue, and warning about the Asian health threat, from the very beginning of the crisis.

I will now state what I see as the best and worst case scenarios for this issue, and then discuss some possible implications of the crisis.

Best case scenario: The large-scale spread of the virus, and the consequent morbidity and mortality, is largely confined to China (and where it is eventually controlled to a manageable level); outside of China, the spread is more limited, and expansion is delayed until such time that an effective vaccine is developed. Perhaps the containment strategies, inhibiting transmission, will select for a less virulent strain. In this scenario, there will be limited health effects in the USA (and Europe); however, some degree of significant economic and supply chain effects are to be expected.  

This best case scenario ends with the caveat that the international community learns nothing, and, in the future, a much more deadly viral plague emerges from the monstrous petri dish that is China, seriously endangering the existence of humanity.

That, including the last threatening caveat, is the best case scenario.

Worst case scenario: The virus spreads worldwide, becoming a very serious pandemic, inflicting significant global morbidly and mortality – reminding us of the "Spanish" flu – before an effective vaccine is finally developed to stem the tide of the unfolding disaster. Many Americans are thus murdered by the Chinese "people." In addition, the economic effects will be much greater than that of the best case scenario, with serious long term consequences. In addition to all of that the “a much more deadly viral plague emerges from the monstrous petri dish that is China, seriously endangering the existence of humanity” still applies to this worst case scenario as well. All of the morbidly and mortality of the current crisis would be just an appetizer for the horrors awaiting us in the future of a true Yellow Death.

Most likely, the true outcome will be somewhere in between these two extremes, but closer to which of them I cannot say at this stage. It’s entirely possible we will luck out and get a more “best case” outcome, although that just sets the stage for a future, much more deadly, Chinese biological attack. But worse short term scenarios are possible as well.

However, given the probable negative effects of even the best case scenario, the Der Movement idea that this is a “nothingburger” must be put into the “wrong, wrong, they’re always wrong” category.  And then we have to consider possible sociopolitical impacts.

Possible long term implications need to be considered. Will this crisis threaten the legitimacy of the Chinese regime among the Chinese “people?”  If not this time, what happens with the inevitable future epidemics in The Land of the Gods? It’s not tenable for the Chinese government to "lock down” the country every time some new disease emerges without the natives getting restless (if it occurs repeatedly). On the other hand, if a deadly disease emerges and there is no lock down, the resulting disaster could completely destabilize that nation.  That is one real Achilles Heel for the Chinese regime and it is being underestimated by the usual suspects. It may not manifest this time, but how many of these epidemics-regime incompetence and lies-lock downs will the Chinese “people” take?

How will this influence the view of China among the rest of the world?  The worse it gets, and the worse the Chinese behave, the more the image of the Chinese Superman is undermined (well, maybe not for the HBDers, and for the Silkers who are more interested in the Chinese Superwoman).

Will all of this embolden critics of globalization?

In the event things get bad in America, what will be the consequences?

Maybe nothing much will happen…this timeEventually it will. Regardless, this an important issue, long term, and not a nothingburger.  I predict there will be some serious eventual consequences, at minimum economic or possibly sociopolitical.  Serious health-related consequences in the USA are entirely possible, but it is too early to tell. It is possible that the Trump administration's quick action has spared us the worst. Or maybe not.  At least EGI Notes - unlike Der Movement - has been taking this seriously from Day One.

One more thing. Readers of this blog know I am critical of Trump; however, so far his handling of this crisis has been excellent. The travel ban – an obviously needed step criticized by the usual suspects (including a politicized WHO and the whining Chinese – has been instrumental in slowing the spread of the virus in the USA. Can you imagine if this happened with Ebola Obama in office – he likely would have increased the Chinese migration influx.

In summary, we have this dichotomy -

Ted Sallis: Prioritizing this from the very beginning, issuing warnings, discussing it from a racial and civilizational basis, seriously discussing its possible importance and implications.

Der Movement: Essentially ignoring it at the early stages, calling it a nothingburger, more concerned with the usual “movement” nonsense.

Time will tell how this dichotomy will turn out, both short term and long term. Stay tuned.

And don’t forget that dichotomy now and in the future.